Consumer credit lending in 2016 will rise by 7%, but growth will slow over the forecast period, with balances outstanding reaching £292.5bn in 2020. Consumer confidence will maintain current demand, despite the uncertainty caused by the UK’s vote to leave the EU in June 2016. Strong competition is increasing the availability of credit but also weakening credit scoring criteria; consequently, there are signs that credit quality is deteriorating. Accommodating monetary policy should mitigate increases in the cost of credit due to higher inflation.
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- Average credit quality has reached its lowest point in over four years, and default rates have been on an upward trend over the last two years.
- UK consumers are currently positive about their immediate financial situation. However, their future expectations of the UK economy are much more negative and have been for some time. The extent of this apprehension about the future has not been significant enough to curtail growth in retail spending, but consumers have held back on purchasing luxury and big ticket items.
- Lower credit scoring criteria has been priced in by providers, resulting in average interest rates on loans of £5,000 rising 1.9% in a year.
- P2P remains the fastest-growing sector. The P2P lending market is showing signs it is starting to consolidate, with synergistic partnerships with other sectors being used to increase the scale of operations. We estimate that P2P lending will comprise 0.42% of total consumer credit in 2016, rising to 1.2% in 2020.
Verdict Financial’s “UK Consumer Credit 2016: Forecasts and Future Opportunities” analyzes the UK consumer credit market, with coverage of both supply and demand factors as well as sectoral analysis. Specifically the report:
- Analyzes the relative performance of the major sectors of the UK consumer credit market.
- Reviews the drivers behind recent market performance.
- Identifies changes in market dynamics.
- Forecasts balances outstanding.
- Forecasts future drivers of growth and product features.
Reasons To Buy
- Which factors will impact the supply of lending?
- Which factors will affect consumer demand for credit?
- Which sectors offer the best prospects and opportunities for expansion over the next few years?
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